A first-order analyst sees that lowering prices increases volume; a second-order analyst asks how competitors will respond, what the new price implies about brand positioning, and whether the volume gain compounds or reverses. Most strategic mistakes are first-order analyses applied to second-order problems.
Glossary
Second-Order Thinking
And then what?
In short
A reasoning discipline popularized by Howard Marks that requires asking "and then what?" after every first-order conclusion. First-order thinking stops at the immediate effect of a decision; second-order thinking traces the cascade of consequences, reactions, and feedback loops that follow.
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Related terms.
Term
Satisficing vs Maximizing
A distinction introduced by economist Herbert Simon to describe two decision styles.
Definition TermScenario Planning
A strategic methodology that models multiple plausible futures rather than attempting to predict a single outcome.
Definition TermSession Mode
A preset configuration that shapes how agents behave in a multi-agent session — balanced analysis, contrarian review, red-teaming, brainstorming.
Definition TermStrategic Fork
A decision point where available paths diverge significantly and the choice is difficult or impossible to reverse once committed.
Definition TermStructured Disagreement
A decision-making approach where disagreement is deliberately engineered and preserved as valuable signal rather than suppressed.
Definition GuideDecision intelligence, explained
The complete guide to making strategic calls with AI that disagrees on purpose.
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