A strategic methodology that models multiple plausible futures rather than attempting to predict a single outcome. Developed at Royal Dutch Shell in the 1970s, scenario planning creates internally consistent narratives about how key uncertainties might resolve — best case, worst case, and several realistic alternatives.
Decisions are then stress-tested against each scenario to identify strategies that are robust across multiple futures. In AI-powered decision intelligence, different experts can independently develop and advocate for different scenarios, producing richer possibility spaces than any single analyst would construct.