The systematic tendency to search for, interpret, and remember information in a way that confirms pre-existing beliefs while discounting contradicting evidence. First formalized by Peter Wason in the 1960s, confirmation bias is the most pervasive failure mode in strategic thinking — it explains why founders ignore signals their plan is failing, why hiring managers fixate on resume features that confirm their first impression, and why AI systems trained to be helpful drift toward agreeing with the user.
Multi-expert analysis with structurally adversarial roles is the most reliable institutional defense.