Which market size?
Work · Board of 3I’m writing an investment memo on AI tutoring in Spain. Top-down reports say €900M. My bottom-up — 1.2M secondary students at €15 a month — says €216M. Which number goes in the memo?
Chief of staff
Two methods, one memo — worth a board. I’d seat The Analyst, The Skeptic and The Investor.
The AnalystData Expert
The SkepticRisk Assessor
The InvestorVC Partner
The board’s call
Lead with the bottom-up €216M as the market you can serve; show €900M only as the ceiling, with its source.
1.2M students at €15 a month for a year is €216M — and that assumes every one pays. Investors trust a number they can rebuild; the €900M rolls in adult learning you aren’t selling to.

The Investor disagreed
“€216M at full adoption is a small market. Say what share you’d really win, or the memo argues against itself.”
Example · Board of 3 · up to 135 credits







