# Scenario Planning

> A strategic methodology that models multiple plausible futures rather than attempting to predict a single outcome.

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## Definition

A strategic methodology that models multiple plausible futures rather than attempting to predict a single outcome. Developed at Royal Dutch Shell in the 1970s, scenario planning creates internally consistent narratives about how key uncertainties might resolve — best case, worst case, and several realistic alternatives. Decisions are then stress-tested against each scenario to identify strategies that are robust across multiple futures. In AI-powered decision intelligence, different experts can independently develop and advocate for different scenarios, producing richer possibility spaces than any single analyst would construct.


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